The Shifting Market and how to Interpret



I’ve always been keenly interested in numbers, much to the chagrin of my Stats prof in University.  What I am interested in mainly is just how numbers can be interpreted and manipulated. We can also tell that a market has shifted by where an agent lists a property. Case in point, while every agent should list a property on the local board or the board where the property is located, not every agent does.  As the market becomes more of a buyer’s market, more and more listings are being listed on the local board or where the property is located.  In May 2021, there were 121 2-storey detached homes located in Oakville and listed on OMDREB (The Oakville Milton and District Real Estate Board) whereas TRREB (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board) showed 173 2-storey detached homes located in Oakville and listed only on TRREB. This means a local realtor is having to check on both the Oakville and Toronto Boards for properties listed in Oakville. What this does is create an imbalance in the statistics offered to the general public.Here’s an example: 2-storey detached homes sold in May 2022    TRREB 96, average sale price $1,985,691, 13 days on market    OMDREB 2, average sale price $1,965,011, 20 days on market (77 duplicate properties were removed  as they were also listed on the Toronto Board)     Total 98, average sale price $1,985,269.2-storey detached homes sold in May 2021    TRREB 173, average sale price $1,940,674, 11 days on market     OMDREB 10, average sale price $1,950,800, 26 days on market (111 duplicate properties were removed as they were also listed on the Toronto Board)     Total 183, average sale price $1,941,225, 18.5 days on marketIf we were just to look at the TRREB numbers, year over year, there is a 2.319% decrease in the average sale price.  Using total numbers, there’s actually a 2.279% decrease in the average sale price, year over year. The point I am driving to is that it is key to discuss true local numbers, rather than what you read in the news or what is presented by ‘experts.’  From May 2021 to May 2022, the biggest factor is that there are more agents listing a property on the local board where the property is located, year over year. We’ve also seen the number of listings drastically decrease, down 46% year over year; however the average sale price has actually increased, year over year, by 2.27%.  At the end of the day, the conversation I have with potential clients is more apt to be about the micro-market, the neighbourhood where the home is actually located, rather than the entire town it is located in. Do you really need to know what the average sale price is in a neighbourhood on the east side of the GTA?  Not usually, what sells on the east side of the GTA won’t necessarily impact what your home sells for.